RBA Likely To Resume Tightening Cycle In August: J.P.Morgan
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RBA Likely To Resume Tightening Cycle In August: J.P.Morgan

The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to wait for conclusive evidence of a rebound in consumer spending and may Resume the Tightening Cycle in August, Helen Kevans, an economist at J.P.Morgan Securities, said in a research note released Thursday.

The bigger-than-expected increase in Australian retail sales in April,
against the backdrop of a marked growth in household consumption in the
first quarter, suggest that consumer spending was not as weak as
commonly assumed, the economist noted.
Continued caution among consumers, evidenced by the sharp increase in
household savings in the first quarter, had allowed the RBA to be
inactive since November, the economist said.

With the economy running on minimal spare capacity and underlying inflation having bottomed, the RBA is Likely to Resume the Tightening Cycle in August, Kevans said. By then, policymakers will have enough data to gauge the strength of the recovery.
Retail sales in Australia increased at the fastest pace since November
2009 in April, after recording a decrease in March. The surprise growth
in sales came amid a decline in employment, lower equity prices and
speculation of a rate hike from the RBA.

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